As the automotive market undergoes a profound transformation, driving a combustion-engine car is poised to become a privilege reserved for a minority. With the European Union’s clear goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, the upcoming ban on the sale of new combustion-engine and hybrid vehicles starting in 2035 marks a major turning point. However, this deadline comes with exceptions that could profoundly disrupt social and economic developments. The ban will not affect all manufacturers equally, leaving the door open to certain luxury brands or small-scale artisanal producers, which could perpetuate combustion-engine vehicles beyond this date, playing an ambivalent role in the ecological transition. This paradox raises crucial questions, particularly regarding social justice and inequalities in access to sustainable mobility. Between environmental issues, industrial challenges, and societal divides, here is an in-depth analysis of the future place of combustion-engine vehicles in our society. Current Status of Internal Combustion Vehicles in Relation to European Targets
- Planned Exceptions to the Ban on New Internal Combustion Vehicles in 2035
- Social and Environmental Consequences of Maintaining Internal Combustion Vehicles for Some
- Economic and Industrial Challenges for Historic Manufacturers and Smaller Brands
- Prospects for Regulatory and Political Developments After 2026
- FAQ on the Impact and Future of Internal Combustion Vehicles
- State of Emissions from Internal Combustion Vehicles and European Targets for 2025-2035
The transportation sector has become a key element in the fight against global warming. In 2022, transportation accounted for approximately 25% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
in the European Union. This share exceeds that of sectors such as residential and commercial (12.8%), industry (12.5%), and agriculture (11.7%). Only the energy industry remains a larger emitter, with nearly 30% of emissions. This dynamic makes transportation a key challenge in the race towards carbon neutrality. Among transport modes, the road sector has generated the largest increase in emissions since 1990, with a 23% increase in GHGs. Air transport follows, with a 16% increase, while emissions from maritime and river transport have decreased by 18%, and those from rail have fallen by 73%. These figures clearly demonstrate the significant impact of internal combustion vehicles and heavy goods vehicles on current pollution. The objective set by the EU, embodied in European Regulation 2023/851, aims to ban the sale of new internal combustion and hybrid vehicles starting in 2035. This measure is strategic because the average lifespan of a vehicle in Europe is less than 15 years. Consequently, by phasing out the sale of internal combustion vehicles, the entire vehicle fleet could move towards carbon neutrality by 2050, in line with the continent’s climate ambitions. This decision directly impacts major European and international automotive brands. Major groups such as Renault, Peugeot, Citroën, Volkswagen, Ford, Opel, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, and Toyota are already adapting to this transformation through significant investments in electric and hybrid vehicles. However, the transition is not without its challenges, particularly due to the high costs and technical challenges associated with batteries. 📈 Road transport emissions have increased by 23% since 1990
🌱 2035 target: ban on the sale of new combustion engines in the EU
🚗 Average lifespan of a car: less than 15 years
🔧 Adaptation of historic manufacturers to new standards ⚠️ Growing emissions despite efforts: a warning signal Mode of transport Emissions growth since 1990 Share of total emissions in the EU (2022)
- Road transport
- +23% 🔥
- ~20% 🚗
- Air transport
- +16% ✈️
| ~5% | Maritime and inland waterway transport | -18% 🌊 |
|---|---|---|
| ~3% | Rail transport | -73% 🚆 |
| <1% | Discover the fascinating world of internal combustion propulsion, a key technology that powers our vehicles and shapes our modern mobility. Learn how this driving method works, its benefits, challenges, and environmental impact. Exceptions to the 2035 ban on new combustion-engine vehicles: a high-priced privilege | The European ban will not apply uniformly to all manufacturers. A key rule concerns small manufacturers producing fewer than 1,000 vehicles per year. These manufacturers, often grouped around brands such as Ariel, Bugatti, or Morgan, will benefit from a complete exemption. They will be able to continue selling combustion-engine vehicles regardless of the 2035 deadline. |
| At first glance, this exemption appears to only concern a niche market that has little impact in terms of volume and emissions—particularly in a European market that currently counts more than 39 million vehicles, including 1.71 million new registrations in France alone in 2024. Yet, socially and symbolically, it represents a potential source of major inequalities. 🎩 Privilege reserved for low-volume artisanal production | 🚘 Exempt luxury brands: exceptional but controversial | 💰 Risk of accentuating « ecology for the rich » |
| ⚖️ Widening social divides around mobility | 🛑 Marginal but socially significant environmental impact | Indeed, these brands’ products are often designed for wealthy customers capable of spending hundreds of thousands of euros, or even more, on a high-end vehicle. This is a case where driving a combustion engine tends to become an exclusive luxury, reserved for those who can afford it. This situation raises the question of a two-tiered ecology, where environmental constraints weigh more heavily on low-income households than on the wealthy. |
Manufacturer category
Annual production thresholds Application of the 2035 banExamples of affected brands
Large volume
- > 10,000 vehicles
- Mandatory ban
- Renault, Peugeot, Volkswagen, Toyota, BMW
- Small manufacturers
- < 1,000 vehicles
Full exemption Ariel, Bugatti, MorganThreshold under discussion
1,000–10,000 vehicles Possible exemption (review in 2026) Aston Martin, McLaren, Rolls-Royce
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqY_z5yAS8s Social and ecological consequences of the privileges granted to combustion-engine vehicles Maintaining a certain share of combustion-engine vehicles on the market through these exceptions poses significant social challenges. Despite their low direct impact on overall emissions, these exemptions create unequal access to mobility and a reinforced ecological divide between different social classes.
| The French context perfectly illustrates this phenomenon. The development of low-emission zones (LEZs) aims to reduce urban pollution by limiting access to the most polluting vehicles. Yet, many low-income households continue to own older cars, often combustion-engine vehicles, which are therefore prohibited or penalized in these zones. This situation generates a perceived sense of discrimination, while at the same time, an elite can afford rare and exclusive combustion-engine models, escape these rules, and often benefit from better access to private or secure infrastructure. | Thus, the debate goes beyond a simple environmental issue to touch on social equity. It is essential that governments anticipate these disparities to prevent the energy transition from becoming a factor of exclusion. The link between ecology and social justice must be central to public policy, particularly to support low-income households toward affordable clean mobility. | 🛣️ Uneven implementation of low-emission zones (LEZs) | 🏘️ Financial difficulties in renewing older vehicles |
|---|---|---|---|
| 💸 Widening inequalities in access to sustainable mobility | ⚡ Almost symbolic but socially significant impact of exemptions | 🤝 Need for social support and assistance schemes | Ecological impact |
| Social impact | Factors | Overall low emissions from niche cars 🔋 | Widening inequalities 🚷 |
| Exemptions, LEZs, purchasing power | Maintaining a small commitment to thermal energy | Visible social divide ⚖️ | Public policies, taxation, aid |
Economic and industrial challenges for manufacturers facing the internal combustion engine ban
Major automotive groups are engaged in a race against time to adapt their offerings to the new ecological landscape. While Renault, Peugeot, Citroën, and Volkswagen are expanding their electric ranges, this shift is a matter of commercial survival and public image for them. However, this transformation requires heavy investments in R&D, a reconfiguration of factories, and an upgrade in the technical skills of their staff. The existence of an exemption for manufacturers producing below established thresholds, however, creates a competitive imbalance. Niche brands enjoy a level playing field that large groups no longer enjoy. This contrast increases the pressure on traditional players, who must not only adapt but also convince consumers who are often ambivalent about the switch to electric vehicles.
🏭 Massive investments in electric technologies 🔌
⚙️ Retaking control of production lines 🎯 2035 targets dictating innovation and strategy 🚀 Risks related to fluctuations in demand and battery prices
- 🏅 Contrasts between traditional manufacturers and small-scale production
- Manufacturer
- Energy strategy
- Key deadline
- Example of an electric model
| Renault | Acceleration of electrification | Complete phase-out of internal combustion engines by 2035 |
|---|---|---|
| Renault Zoe | Volkswagen | Rapid transition to electric vehicles |
| Internal combustion engine ban by 2035 | Volkswagen ID.4 | BMW |
Energy mix with hybrids and electric vehicles Adaptations planned before 2035BMW iX
Toyota
Hybrid and electric development Gradual transition Toyota Prius Prime However, dependence on supply chains, particularly for rare battery materials, accentuates existing vulnerabilities. This also raises the question of the industrial impact of the internal combustion engine ban: a balance must be struck to prevent Europe from losing its technological sovereignty to dominant markets like China. Finally, economic arguments are emerging against a complete phase-out too quickly. Some experts cite the need to still have hybrid internal combustion engines in transition, as well as a diversified offering to meet different mobility needs, particularly in rural areas. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVfodEoGjbU
Discover how internal combustion engines work and their impact on driving performance. Explore the technologies, advantages, and challenges associated with this classic form of propulsion in the automotive world.
- Prospects for rule changes after the 2026 review clause
- The review clause included in the European regulation opens the door to a possible adaptation of the rules surrounding the ban on internal combustion vehicles. Scheduled for 2026, this review aims to assess the feasibility of the measures and take into account feedback from manufacturers and the market.
- A key point will be the possibility of extending the exemption to brands producing fewer than 10,000 vehicles per year, as previously envisaged in 2022. This extension would have a significant impact, by including prestigious companies such as
- Aston Martin, McLaren
- or
| Rolls-Royce | . If this adjustment is confirmed, the market structure could then differ significantly from what was initially predicted, reinforcing the image of combustion engines as an ultra-luxury niche market. | Governments will also need to examine social and fiscal measures related to the acceptability of the transition. Discussions are moving towards a fairer mobility model, which includes support for low-income households, while maintaining a consistent reduction in overall emissions. 📅 Key review in 2026 to adjust regulations | 📉 Possibility of expanding the exemption threshold to 10,000 vehicles |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ Pressure for a stronger ecological and social balance | ⚖️ Managing inequalities and supporting low-income households | 🔄 Adaptation of industrial sectors and public policies | Event |
| Date | Main impact | Expected consequences | Ban on internal combustion engine sales |
| 2035 | End of new internal combustion engine vehicles in the EU | Trend towards carbon neutrality | Regulatory review |
| 2026 | Possibility of modifying thresholds | Extension of possible exemptions | Implementation of ZFE in France |
2020-2025
Restriction of polluting vehicles in cities
Detailed article on exceptions to the thermal ban
Analysis on the implementation of the thermal law in France
Report on the resilience of thermal vehicles in Europe Debate in the National Assembly on ban dates Purchase options for affordable hybrid vehicles FAQ – Frequently Asked Questions about Driving Internal Combustion Engines and Their FutureWill the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles be completely banned in 2035?
In principle, yes for most manufacturers, but exceptions are planned for small production runs and luxury brands.
- Which manufacturers are exempt from this ban?
- Manufacturers producing fewer than 1,000 new vehicles per year, such as Bugatti or Morgan, are exempt. This measure could be expanded in 2026.
- What social impacts could this ban have?
- It risks exacerbating mobility inequalities, especially for low-income households facing stricter conditions in certain urban areas.
- How are major manufacturers adapting to this transition?
| They are actively developing their electric and hybrid ranges, reviewing their industrial processes, and investing heavily in battery technology. | Will there be any changes to the rules in 2026? A review is planned to adjust the exemption thresholds and the application procedures, taking into account technical and social developments. | ||
|---|---|---|---|